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August 26, 2012 at 8:23 PM Thursday night is Partner's Meeting. No written commentary tonight. To listen to today's broadcast just click the headphones above.
emini futures, emini podcast August 22, 2012 at 9:54 PM Is there really a Leading Indicator? One specific market that signals the world that the S&P 500 is about to make a move? Until today I was pretty steadfast in my argument that the answer was "No". If you've listened to the show for any length of time you know my list of reasons is itself quite lengthy not the least of which is that if there was such a thing, we would all know about it and would each be trading from our own sovereign nation (island). Argument #2 on the list and probably the most sound is the markets would simply cease to exist as everyone would be exploiting the same edge rendering it useless.
Have I changed my mind? No. However, based on some input today from one of our Partners and a few other seasoned traders there does seem to be one idea that just might have some merit.
aud/jpy, emini futures, leading indicator August 22, 2012 at 12:36 AM He who looks too hard, may miss the obvious.
The S&P 500 presented two exceptional opportunities today before noon. Both of these trades are examples of the "Simple Trade" Video series.
You've been watching as I cover the last month moving forward 1 day at a time, 1 trade at a time. I thought I would fast forward tonight and show you what happened today.
August 20, 2012 at 7:55 PM E-Mini S&P 500 Futures reacted cautiously to the rhetoric concerning the German Bundesbank’s view of the European Central Bank’s potential bond buying program! Germany has shouldered much of the debt crisis in the Euro Zone and may be a bit of the “lender of last resort” in this plan.
There is still a sentiment of prospective easing as traders await further indications of potential Federal Reserve action at the summit taking place at the end of the month and the European Central Bank meeting in September. This week, we look forward to housing data that is expected to show both the existing and new home sales climbing to 4.89 million unit annual rate from the 4.72 million unit rate in June.
emini futures, emini podcast August 19, 2012 at 10:48 PM We've been talking about how incredibly quiet it is in the market lately. How quiet is it?
In the latest edition of The Gartman Letter, Dennis Gartman passes along this line from Charles Brady of the Fox Business Network:
Since August 3, over the next 8 sessions the Dow traded as high as 13,223.01 and as low as 13,094.96 for a range of 128 points, or 0.98 percent. In percentage terms that is the narrowest 8-day trading range since at least 1950. I couldn't check back any further than 1950, but I think the point is clear. No conviction, no volume, truly the dog days of summer on Wall Street!
That quiet. 62 years worth.
emini futures, emini indicators August 14, 2012 at 11:38 PM In the world of trading there are few absolutes. Here are a few simple tips to help spot major market tops.
Tip #1) Don't go looking for it. If you spend your days looking for the next major market top you will not only miss a lot of opportunities, you will also get it dead wrong more often than not. Spend your time learning to trade whatever the market presents. Each day it will bring you something new and different, something to challenge you, something to change you. Look back over the history of whatever market you are interested in and get a perspective of how many major market tops there have been and then consider the odds of when the next one could happen along and ask yourself what skills you will need to not only know that it is transpiring, but to execute and manage it successfully.
August 13, 2012 at 2:39 PM emini futures, emini podcast August 10, 2012 at 1:41 AM Technical analysis is perhaps the oldest device designed to beat the market. It has a secular history whose origins can be traced to the seminal articles published by Charles H. Dow in the Wall Street Journal between 1900 and 1902.
The principles of technical analysis are derived from hundreds of years of financial markets data. Some aspects of technical analysis began to appear in Joseph de la Vega's accounts of the Dutch markets in the 17th century. In Asia, technical analysis is said to be a method developed by Homma Munehisa during the early 18th century which evolved into the use of candlestick techniques which have only recently made their way into the western world and Wall Street.
There are those who dispute Technical Analysis. One such highly respected individual is Burt Malkiel, noted author and professor at Princeton who believes the behavior of financial markets are more akin to a drunken sailor's stumble back to the ship. His work is highlighted in a very popular book now in its 11th printing -
August 9, 2012 at 11:58 PM 
An American economist and writer, most famous for his classic finance book A Random Walk Down Wall Street (now in its 11th edition, 2012). Burt is a leading proponent of the efficient market hypothesis, which contends that prices of publicly traded assets reflect all publicly available information, although he has also pointed out that some markets are evidently inefficient, exhibiting signs of non-random walk.
Malkiel in general supports buying and holding index funds as the most effective portfolio-management strategy, but does think it is viable to actively manage "around the edges" of such a portfolio, as financial markets are not totally efficient.
August 8, 2012 at 10:56 AM Every successful trader has at one time or another, in his or her trading career, experienced a trading “blow-up”. Some survive to trade another day, and many become another statistic. This is a topic not to be missed by anyone who wants to trade for a living and succeed. Why? Because, it’s not if a blow-up will happen, but when.
If you haven’t blown up an account yet, we will cover an understanding of the warning signs to help avoid or at least minimize the financial loss. If you have experienced a blow-up, knowing how to re-group and get back in the game without residual emotional challenges will also be beneficial to your future successes.
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