Emini Futures Trading / Up To My Neck I Tell You!

E-Mini S&P 500: The neckline is revisited!

The E-Mini S&P 500 seems to be revisiting the neckline of our previous head and shoulders formation!  $1341.00 is about 38 % of a retracement. The chart is temporarily still in a buy mode, but a potential sell mode may be anticipated. This week is all about the jobs, now that the announcement of the raid on terrorist leader Osama Bin Laden is behind us. It still remains to be seen as to the details of the raid.  Today, the ISM Non-manufacturing Index fell to 52.8 last month from March’s 57.3, below analysts’ expectations. We needed 50 to show growth. Applied Materials Inc., a chip equipment maker, is offering to buy Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates Inc. for $53  per share to upgrade their technology.  Varian shares were up 51 % while Applied Materials slipped 1.1%. ConAgra Foods Inc. upped their offer to buy Ralcorp Holdings Inc. to enhance the private-label portion of their business. US Private Employers increased the number of workers by 179,000 and payrolls went up slightly. ADP Employer Services were expecting as increase 198,000. Employers stated that there were 36,490 job cuts last month, better than the 41,528 in March according to Challenger,  Gray and Christmas Inc. This is a crucial time with so many mixed reports! Earnings have come in mixed as of late and we need to show recovery and growth. We need the Initial Jobless Claims number to be reduced tomorrow and Friday’s Unemployment  must show some improvement to support this market. 

Thursday,  we look forward to Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM CST.

BETWEEN the LINES

Tonight we wrap up our discussion of using the CF_MA1 as a standalone indicator. If you missed part one, be sure to review last night's post and chart. This discussion is not for the purpose of encouraging you to only use the CF_MA1, it is in response to direct questions which we feel are best addressed by using real data, looking at every trade set-up, using minimum target requirements and a maximum stop loss of 2 points. As you review the charts you will see the conservative manner in which I graded and critiqued each set-up. The last thing I want to do is present you with a list of outlandish woulda' coulda' shoulda' trades. Each of these setups that occurred over the last 2 days are historical facts. Each entry highlighted is delivered by the CF_MA1 with surgical precision to the tick. There is no ambiguity on the entry - NONE. All setups on this time frame use an MIT order for entry. Only trades that ran a minimum of 2 points were placed in the Potential Profit column. It is not realistic to expect that you would achieve the maximum potential on any trade. Just because a trade runs for 6 points doesn't mean you book 6. You have to determine based on your own goals where and when you will exit. As you will see from this chart and this 1 indicator from our tool belt, getting in is easy. For the exit... you need to learn how to trade.

Before we go to the chart I want to cover one big thing. I covered it well in the Live Trading Room this morning and I want to make sure anyone reading this blog has the same information. If you listen to the podcast you will hear it there as well. People love to throw around statistics. People love to ask for statistics. People love to say and hear things like "We back tested it for 3 years starting with a $10k account, 73% of the trades were profitable and our mythical account is now worth $987,642.00". Ok, I stretched it, they don't really say mythical. What it is, is a load. Let's leave it at that. It has absolutely nothing to do with the real world. The assumption has to be that you were available to take every trade. You never had a hangover, you never had to go to the dentist, you never had to pick up the kids from school or go on vacation, and of course you never need sleep. Now that we know you were actually available to take every trade generated over the last 3 years, ask yourself the really hard question... "Did you have the stones to take every trade?"  When the mythical monster gets it wrong 3 times in a row and you're down on the day and down on the week, are you really going to put on that next trade when it pops up? Well are you? Because if you aren't available and/or you don't take the trade, those hypothetical results start swirling the drain pretty darn quick. Don't they? Why am I asking all these hard questions? Well somebody better ask them because unscrupulous vendors are taking advantage of people every single day. It's no surprise that the success rate of new traders is so dismal.

"But his equity curve was so big!"

Snap out of it. You have to take all those statistics and import them into the real world. YOUR WORLD. When you look at this chart and last night's chart you have to ask yourself 2 very important questions -

• Was I available to take the trade?
• Would I have taken the trade?

If the answer is no on either count then guess what... that trade doesn't count. Not for you. Not in the REAL WORLD in which you live and breathe and buy groceries and pay mortgages. That said, let me get down off this soap box and just show you the chart. Remember, we don't hand you dodgy numbers, we just trade in front of God and our Partners every morning for 2 hours, live in real time. Come join us!

This discussion specific to the CF_MA1 will end tonight but guess what? The markets will continue to do what markets do, and the CF_MA1 will continue to do what the CF_MA1 does. Just because I don't address it everyday doesn't mean it isn't out there hard at work 24/5 doing what it does, over and over and over. Buy it once, use it forever! I will poll everyone in the Live Trading Room tomorrow to see which of our indicators they would like me to pick apart next. I did this back in February across each indicator, across multiple markets, so if you can't wait, just scroll back.

Thursday, what to expect! We are technically still in buy mode on the Daily Chart for the moment, but the E-Mini S&P 500 seems to have weakened. Thursday,  we look for an inside to higher day! Today’s range was $1355.00 - $1337.50.  The market settled at $1343.00. Our comfort zone or point of control for this market appears to be $1346.50. Our anticipated potential range for Thursday’s  trading may be $1356.00  -  $1336.00. The market stays bullish above $1336.00.     

Leslie Burton

Senior Market Strategist

Back By Popular Demand - Trader X

We are excited to have back with us next week a very special guest. Michael has visited with us on 2 previous occasions and has kindly agreed to drop in next Monday or Tuesday for a chat. I'll post the date as soon as we have it confirmed. What's so special about this fellow?

Read the post I wrote last August the day before the actual interview HERE.

And then listen to the interview. I did a rough edit of mostly just his portion of that days broadcast. You'll hear him on within about 2 minutes once the podcast begins streaming.

Read the post, listen to the interview, and prepare any questions you would like to ask next week.

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