Emini FuturesCast 06/23/11

by DeWayne Reeves

If things go as planned we will not only broadcast tomorrow we will burn a podcast as well. For those of you who didn't catch the news we are now a part of the Stitcher Network.

You can now hear CFRN shows while on the go with Stitcher SmartRadio on your mobile phone. The latest episode is always available for you- no syncing needed… and no memory or storage wasted!
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Although we are extremely honored and excited to become a part of the Stitcher Family and the new mobile app audio revolution, no one can ever take the place of our first family, which is you. As a  CFRN Partner or a member of our audience, you are the reason we do what we do... and we love what we do. Thank you for 6 years of encouragment, faith, hope, and love. Without you, there would be no CFRN.

Strange happenings in the market today. What had all the trappings of a powerful trend down day caught an enormous bounce mid-day. An out of nowhere pop that we haven't seen the likes of in quite some time. In one hour the ES Emini rallied 16 points from 1261.50 to 1277.75. In Leslie's article below there will be some discussion as to the fundamental reason behind it. The point I want to make is if you were short when it happened you got stopped out for a few points and moved on to the next trade. If you didn't get stopped out that means you were trading without a stop and you are feeling tremendous stress. Perhaps you received a margin call. Perhaps you will receive one tomorrow morning. If you do, please let it be the last one you ever receive. While these types of moves are unusual today is living proof that they do happen and if you were short 10 contracts when that thing popped, without a stop you were down $8k in a matter of minutes. 50 contracts cost you $40k. A hard stop was and always will be the most affordable insurance you'll ever purchase. Practice Safe Trading - Always Use A Stop!

On a more positive note, this volatility is a traders paradise. Make hay while the sun shines. I usually don't leak the Weekly Zones until Friday to the general public but I want more than almost anything to see each and everyone of you succeed in this business of trading. As frustrated as you might be right now, as close to throwing in the towel as you might be, I'm going to suggest that you are actually closer than you think. We can't make you learn how to trade, but we can teach you. All you have to do is ask.

Here's the ES on an Hourly Chart. CFRN Partners have these Weekly Zones before the open every Monday. No matter what method you use to put on and take off trades, could having this information beforehand have improved your results this week? (that's not rhetorical)

ES Weekly Trading ZonesThere were over 120 swing points available between zones. Could anyone catch them all? Not me. I like to eat, sleep, shower, take long walks in the desert. That's not my point. Where do you find elephants? Elephant country. Where do you find diamonds? Diamond mines. Here's my point, if you know where to look for something, anything, it enhances the probability of actually finding it exponentially. That's how you should look at the Weekly Zones. Clearly defined spots on your Treasure Map where possibility becomes probability. To catch even 50% of this action would be quite extraordinary. Agreed? Let's under achieve here. Instead of raising the bar let's do the limbo. How about 10%. Could you swing that? For every 10 point move on average you net out on average 1 point. Is that feasible? Is that doable?

I really think it is. I believe if you learn to read the market and use our very easy to understand indicators, I think you could limbo your way into 12 points net over the course of the week. Oh wait... there's still one day left - Friday. Heck, let's say we did good and we're taking Friday off. Fair enough?

The ES pays you $50 per point for every contract you trade. If you traded just the one contract and limbo'd your way into those 12 points net -  $50 X 12 points X 1 contract = $600.00

USUAL WEEKLY EARNINGS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS<br />                               FIRST QUARTER 2011<br /><br /><br />Median weekly earnings of the nation's 98.3 million full-time wage and salary <br />workers were $755 in the first quarter of 2011 (not seasonally adjusted), the U.S. <br />Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

So trading that 1 contract in our example puts you slightly behind the people in America who still have a job. If we change the numbers slightly, not more points, just two contracts instead of one -

$50 X 12 points X 2 contracts = $1,200.00 which now puts us at almost double the average wage.

$50 X 12 points X 3 contracts = $1,800.00 now puts us at almost triple the average weekly wage.

I don't feel comfortable using bigger numbers than that to make my example. I also want to say this in all caps - TRADING IS RISKY AND YOU CAN LOSE ALL YOUR MONEY.

Is trading easy? NO!

Is trading simple? IT CAN BE...

Can anyone learn to trade? I believe the answer is yes but not everyone has the temperament to see it through. Not everyone has the desire. Not everyone has the capital and time required to fund an account and cover their living expenses while they learn the trade of trading. You need to talk with someone you trust. A spouse, a pastor, your accountant, someone you trust who won't pull any punches and will help you walk through the pros and cons of a trading career.

To do business with us you need $3,500.00 for the 120 hours of training and to purchase the indicators.

You need a minimum of $2,000.00 preferably $5,000.00 to fund an account.

You have to be able to buy groceries and pay the mortgage for at least a few months and possibly even longer. You really need to put pen to paper to see if this makes any sense at all for you. If you are under the financial gun and trying to figure out a way to make next month's mortgage, this is definitely not the answer. I've never seen anyone succeed with that type of pressure on their back.

Am I trying to discourage you from becoming a trader? No. I just want you to fully understand what it will take and the commitment you have to be willing to make if you're to have any real chance for success.

With that said I'll show you today's Corn market. Keep in mind that Grains are seasonal and we won't always see this much volatility.

Corn / Click to enlargeIf you have a desire to learn to Trade for a Living, you have a team of dedicated professionals standing by ready to assist you. If you want to learn more call Burt @ 1-866-928-3310 or email Michael tech@cfrn.net for a no obligation discussion and then spend a Full Week in our Live Trading Room. The phone call is free, the free trial is free, but you still have to bring your own snacks because we all know there are no free lunches. Right?

I will reveal all the Weekly Trading Zones first thing tomorrow for all the markets we trade so pop in, grab 'em, and see if they can make a difference in your trading.

 https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/689510353 (doors open @ 9AM EDT)

E-Mini S&P 500: Obama turns on the spigot!

In the midst of global economy fears we have an unexpected development! The International Energy Agency reported that they will be releasing 60 million barrels of the reserve oil from the strategic inventories. The Crude Oil dropped over $4.00 in response to the announcement. It was a case where the government mentioned that it responded to disruptions stemming from Libya. It had also been a concern regarding  potential high inflation. Corporations were fixating on the energy prices impeding their ability to produce goods and services with any profit. It was thought that the higher gas prices curtailed the global growth. Demand had been a concern as well. Demand had slackened at the high prices. The economy simply could not support the excessive prices. The Initial Jobless Claims came in at an increased  by 9,000 to 429,000 while claims were expected at 415,000.

Greece had agreed to a 5 year austerity plan, but the citizens of Greece really do not relish the idea of increased taxes, pension cutbacks and employment and wages reductions. The uncertainty of whether Greece can stick to the  measures may keep the market from bouncing too much. Investors were assessing their exposure to a potential Greece default. They had  moved back into the US Dollar which benefited to a high of $76.25. Investors are not only worried about the potential banks abroad, but if Greece or Portugal default they could suffer through any US money market funds holding short-term paper from those banks. Investors seemed to pull away from risk products as Asian stocks fell due to China’s slowed factory growth in June. Weak economic data has affected most parts of the world at this point. Tomorrow’s US GDP has already been forecast lower by Federal Chairman Ben Bernanke. Obviously, our market is being supported at these levels and perhaps will continue through the summer!    

Friday, we look forward to the GDP and Advanced Durable Goods at 7:30 AM CST.

Friday, what to expect!  We are technically in buy mode on the Daily Chart!  We still may experience some spike downs in establishing that bottom. Friday, we look for an inside to higher day! Today’s range was $1280.75 - $1257.00. The market settled at $1277.50. Our comfort zone or point of control for this market appears to be $1270.75. Our anticipated potential range for Friday’s Trading could be $1287.50 - $1262.50.  The market stays bullish above  $1254.75. The support may be the 200 day moving average around the $1255.00 area.

Leslie Burton

Senior Market Strategist

ps/ last night's Euro tweet was a humdinger - go check it out!

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