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« Emini Podcast | Episode #1,551 | Main | Emini Podcast | Episode #1,549 »
Monday
Dec032012

Will Santa Rally The Emini Futures?

DateDecember 3, 2012 at 9:46 PM

(FB)(GRPN)(SPY)(DIA)(QQQ)

 

Santa Claus Rally And The Emini Futures

 

From a historical perspective the odds of a Santa Claus Rally are good. How good?

  • Over the past 20 years December has posted positive gains 80% of the time.

However, with John "Thelma" Boehner and Harry "Louise" Reid barreling our economy towards the Fiscal Cliff, the odds may have shifted in favor of the Grinch this year.

10 years bonds currently yield 1.6%. If the bond bull were to stumble and yields went to 3% we could have a very different situation on our hands very quickly. 

 

What is the Santa Claus Rally?

If there is an academic explanation that explains a Santa Claus rally, it would be a strong move to the upside that occurs between Christmas and the New Year. There are as many explanations for this rally as there are lights on a Christmas tree, but some of the more common include the euphoria of the holiday season and excitement about the New Year, positioning portfolios for maximum tax benefits, and the absence of some of the market's more pessimistic traders who are still on vacation. Source: Investopedia

Since 1896, the Dow between Christmas and New Years has risen 78% of the time, producing an average gain of 1.06%. That compares to an average gain of just 0.10% across all other 4-trading-day periods since 1896, over which the Dow rose just 55% of the time. Stuff that in your stocking and trade only what's in front of you. Ho Ho Ho!


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Emini Podcast for Monday 12/03/12

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