Emini FuturesCast / The Daily Pod 07/21/11
July 21, 2011 at 10:49 PM (QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(GLD)(SLV)
It's complicated. Listen to the show and you'll understand. Yes. We covered the markets. ALL of them.
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E-Mini S&P 500: Selling opportunity!
The E-Mini S&P 500 is gleaning the optimism on the “progress” of the US talks on the debt ceiling, the accord by the leaders in the Euro Zone for measures to bailout the debt-ridden countries and the earnings reports coming in. The cup appears to be half-full as the market has risen since turn-around Tuesday. The claims filled out by Americans seeking unemployment benefits had risen this week 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 418,000. This was nothing out of the ordinary, but the numbers were in range and not worsening. This is a case of the market responding optimistic over “steady” as opposed to way above the norm. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index increased 0.3 % to 115.3, which is the indicator in the US often used to forecast future economic activity. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank reported its business activity index was up 3.2 from being down 7.7 the previous month. President Obama and his “gang of six” are still working on the debt ceiling talks that must be concluded by August 2nd to retain the AAA credit rating. Standard & Poor’s credit rating agency had given the US a 50/50 chance that the credit rating may be downgraded within the next 3 months. While we consider the ramifications, please note that many countries have lost their triple AAA credit ratings such as Japan that still may enjoy lower interest loans and still may be regarded as a stable economic nation. Perhaps the idea that our leaders of one nation only, may not agree on issues to affect the future of America would be the most troubling thought. After all “United we stand, Divided we fall" has been a motto used since the days of Aesop’s fables.
Another boost for the market came from the stock sector! Morgan Stanley was up 10.4 to $23.98. KBW Capital Markets index was up 2.9 . American Express was up 0.3 to $52.27 before the opening bell. Nokia was up 2.2 to $5.92. Transportation stocks had also come in better as Union Pacific Corp. reported better quarterly profits and was up 4.6 to $104.40. Biotechnology stocks had also helped as Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. was up 9.1 to $56.77.
China is typically regarded as a strong economic leader in the recovery and is used on occasion to forecast the demand of products and services. The HSBC flash PMI, an early indicator of economic activity in China, was down to 48.9 in July which was the lowest reading since March of 2009. Other tidbits! The International Energy Agency announced that it would not release any additional Crude Oil into the marketplace. The news buoyed the Crude Oil market back up to around $100.
The Euro Zone has so far come up with extensions on the loans for Greece and more flexibility for the European Financial Stability Facility to deal with the debt problems. The Euro Zone bailout fund may provide loans to Greece, Ireland and Portugal with a lower interest-rate for longer-term. The 2nd bailout for Greece may consist of around $109 billion euros. The anxiety and fears of investors were lifted as the Euro FX had lifted from around $1.4100 to $1.4400. While positive for the Euro FX, the US Dollar sank today under the pressures of the US talks and the positive news coming from the Euro Zone.
Friday, we have no major US economic reports due out!
Friday, what to expect! We are technically in buy mode on the Daily Chart! Friday, we look for a possible inside to higher day! Today’s range was $1343.50 - $1315.00. The market settled at $1342.50. Our comfort zone or point of control for this market appears to be $1333.00. Our anticipated potential range for Friday’s trading could be $1349.50 - $1326.50. The market stays bullish above $1292.25. We are potentially looking to sell the rallies tomorrow!
Leslie Burton
Senior Market Strategist
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